Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

Research Article

International Journal of One Health, 6(2): 143-146

https://doi.org/10.14202/IJOH.2020.143-146

Elham Gholami¹, Kamyar Mansori², and Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi³

1. Treatment Deputy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
2. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
3. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, School of Medicine, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran.

Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran.

Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull.

Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths.

Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen. Keywords: coronavirus disease-2019, distribution, infection, Weibull.

Keywords: coronavirus disease-2019, distribution, infection, Weibull.

How to cite this article: Gholami E, Mansori K, Soltani-Kermanshahi M (2020) Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran, Int. J. One Health, 6(2): 143-146.

Received: 11-06-2020 Accepted: 07-08-2020 Published online: 17-09-2020

Corresponding author: Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi E-mail: msoltani@farabi.tums.ac.ir

DOI: 10.14202/IJOH.2020.143-146

Copyright: Gholami, et al. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.